I would say most people think the money will follow the Ivy League education, because Ivy League -
(1) provide better level of teaching;
(2) provide better level of social networking;
(3) they signal to future employers that the degree-holder worth paying more than average graduates.
The cost of a private college education, already astronomical, is spiraling upward faster than the rate of inflation. For years, economists have wrestled with the question of whether the future earnings exceed the hefty cost of Ivy League or equivalent private college in economic terms.
In 1997, Harvard economist
Caroline Hoxby figured that men who entered a top-tier private college in 1982 will earn $2.9 million over a lifetime, versus $2.4 million for men who went to one of the most selective public institutions and $1.7 million for men from one of the least-selective public institutions. (numbers are in 1997 dollars.)
She figured student aptitude accounts for somewhere between 2/3 and 3/4 of the earnings difference; yet even allowing for this, she found that it pays to go to the most selective college you can. "People who invest in education at a more selective college generally earn back their investment several times over during their careers," "In many cases," she added, "even students who are offered a 'free ride' by a lower-ranked college would maximize their monetary worth by refusing the aid and attending the higher-ranked college."
She compared students paying average 1997-98 tuition at a third-rank public college to those paying average tuition at a first-rank private college. Even adjusting for differences in student aptitude, the private school student would be expected to earn back the difference in costs more than 30 times over during the course of a working lifetime, far outstripping any possible investment returns on invested capital.
Another study done by
Dan A. Black, an economist at Syracuse University, says you will make more by attending an elite college, "but it comes out awfully close to what you'd get in the stock market" if you invested the difference in price between a top college and a lesser state school.
In 1998,
Ronald G. Ehrenberg, director of the Cornell Higher Education Research Institute in Ithaca (New York) and colleagues found that "even after controlling for selection effects, there is strong evidence of significant economic return to attending an elite private institution, and some evidence that this premium has increased over time."
The problem is those "selection effects," meaning the tendency of top schools to admit the best and the brightest, who are most likely to earn big after attending any old college anyway. How to isolate those “selection effects” and study them? To address this, in 1998,
Alan B. Krueger looked not just at the earnings of elite-college graduates, but also at the earnings of those accepted at elite colleges who chose to attend a less-selective institution. The researchers found that both groups of students earned about the same. That suggests that the students themselves--not the school--account for the difference. To Krueger, if you're smart enough to get into Princeton, you're smart enough to make a lot of money wherever you go to school.
After many conversations with tuition-paying parents, I think we should take all those data with a grain of salt and mix their findings with some common sense -
1) for some occupations, Harvard doesn't pay. If your kid is going to be a social worker or a programmer, going to Harvard will probably never pay off financially. And if your child wants to study studio art but is admitted to Cal Tech, there's no point paying for Cal Tech. Spend the money on a school with a better art program, such
School of the Art Institute of Chicago.
2) if you live some place with a truly great state university (the universities of California, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Illinois are good examples), only the very best private colleges are even worth considering as an alternative.
3) If your kids don’t deal well with high level stress (social and academic) situations, for health reasons, don’t go to Ivy League schools.
4) If you are minority and your and your kid gets into Ivy League , do whatever you can to send him or her. The Ivy League degree will send strong signals to future employers; many institution in both public and private sectors strongly favor minority graduates with a good degree.